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Hot Rolled Futures Continue to Slide Amidst Global Slowdown FearsThis week

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Hot Rolled Futures Continue to Slide Amidst Global Slowdown FearsThis week

Post by Dirtbikepilot on Fri May 04, 2012 2:08 pm

This week we had renewed concerns of a slowdown in the Eurozone,
deteriorating manufacturing data, and continued uncertainty over China.
Despite that gloomy backdrop, steel output in the U.S. was near a four
year high, steel imports into the U.S. were near a four year high, and
China’s steel output continues at record levels.

The May spot price for Hot Rolled Coil on CME U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled
futures contract settled yesterday at $660, although we have heard
physical spot deals being booked easily at $650 and sub $650. On the
CME, Q3 HRC settled yesterday at $670, Q4 settled at $673 and Calendar
2013 traded at $685 this week. Anything starting with a “7” is long
gone.

Volume on the CME U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled futures contract was firm as
1,700 lots traded (34,000 tons) over the first three days of this week.

Open Interest on the CME hit a record high this past week of 13,187
contracts, or 263,740 tons. An increasing open interest indicates more
activity and liquidity for the contract. Increasing open interest is an
indication that new money is flowing into the contract and that the
present price trend – namely down – will continue. Should Open Interest
suddenly decline that will be our signal that the market is liquidating
and that the present price trend may be about to reverse. We will keep
an eye on Open Interest over the summer for clues as to if and when this
current downtrend may start to reverse.

Below is a table with yesterday’s HRC futures settlement prices on the
CME contract for each individual month through 2012 as compared to last
week:

By Steel Market Update -

Fri 04 May 2012 07:39:57 CT
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